Charlie Cook: Predicting Turnout in an Unpredictable Race

National Journal – This presidential race seems to have sta­bil­ized at a point where the prob­ab­il­ity of Hil­lary Clin­ton beat­ing Don­ald Trump is very high, but the mar­gin is tough to pre­dict—as is the rate of voter turnout.

Sure, there could be an exo­gen­ous world event, ter­ror­ist at­tack, or eco­nom­ic calam­ity that could change the dy­nam­ics of this race, or there could be de­vel­op­ments in­volving the can­did­ates them­selves that could change the tra­ject­ory of this elec­tion. But for every chal­lenge Clin­ton faces, there is at least an equal one for Trump; think of Clin­ton’s emails versus Trump’s in­come-tax re­turns.

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